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In the first quarter, US equities faced challenges amid political turmoil, while European stocks benefited from fiscal policies. The US economy is expected to slow due to punitive tariffs, but its adaptability may prevent a recession. Investors are advised to diversify portfolios, as US dollar bonds carry high risks amid growing mistrust in the US as a reliable partner. Meanwhile, Swiss equities remain attractive, bolstered by the franc's status as a safe haven alongside gold.
Elon Musk has distributed million-dollar checks to two Wisconsin voters in an effort to influence the upcoming state Supreme Court election, which could shift the court's balance towards conservatism. The election, seen as a referendum on Trump, features liberal Susan Crawford against conservative Brad Schimel, with significant implications for issues like abortion rights and electoral districting. Musk's financial backing for conservative causes has raised concerns about his growing influence in U.S. politics.
Elon Musk acknowledged that his political involvement, particularly in supporting Donald Trump's efforts to reduce government size, is negatively impacting Tesla's stock performance, which has dropped significantly. He noted that his personal wealth has also declined by over $100 billion this year, despite believing in Tesla's long-term potential. Musk has invested more than $14 million in a Wisconsin state supreme court election, aiming to influence its ideological balance, while warning of potential repercussions for Republican control in future redistricting.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now predicting three quarter-point reductions in July, September, and November, amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm raised the 12-month recession probability to 35% and lowered its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.0%, while also anticipating a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now expecting three quarter-point reductions this year amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm anticipates cuts in July, September, and November, raising the 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%. Additionally, it has lowered its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.0% and increased the year-end unemployment rate estimate to 4.5%.
US markets are under pressure as fears of a trade war escalate with President Trump's impending tariffs affecting all countries. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices have seen significant declines, while gold prices soar amid geopolitical tensions. Vaccine stocks also suffered, with Moderna and Biontech experiencing sharp losses.
Elon Musk clarified that the U.S. government has no plans to use Dogecoin, despite the similar name of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.). He emphasized the initiative's goal to enhance government efficiency by 15%, distancing it from cryptocurrency ties.Musk's recent comments come amid ongoing scrutiny, including a market manipulation lawsuit from the SEC. Meanwhile, D.O.G.E. has faced criticism and lawsuits as it implements significant budget cuts and layoffs across various federal agencies.
Goldman Sachs warns that impending tariffs from the Trump administration could lead to higher inflation, increased unemployment, and stagnant economic growth. The firm predicts a potential rise in tariff rates by 15 percentage points, with a more moderate increase of about 9 percentage points expected due to exemptions. Inflation is projected to reach 3.5% by 2025, while economic growth may slow to an annualized rate of just 0.2% in Q1 and 1% for the year. Unemployment is anticipated to rise to 4.5%, and the likelihood of a recession in the next year has increased to 35%.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now predicting three quarter-point reductions this year amid increased recession risks linked to tariff uncertainties. The firm anticipates a 35% probability of recession within 12 months, up from 20%, and has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter to 1.0% while raising the year-end unemployment rate estimate to 4.5%.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% and forecasts three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing President Trump's tariffs as a significant factor impacting the global economy. The firm has also lowered its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.5% and cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5,700. Additionally, Europe is expected to face a more severe economic downturn, potentially entering a technical recession, with the European Central Bank anticipated to implement further rate cuts.
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